To discuss the cannabis space, call Jamie at 302-750-9678 or schedule a conversation.
An east coast cannabis advisory specializing in macro & micro strategy, expansion, M&A facilitation, industry intelligence, municipal outreach, and market mechanics for regulators, stakeholders, and operators in adult-use and medical marijuana programs.
I help cannabis companies see around corners, evaluate unknowns, and assign probability to near-term and long-term outcomes.
- communicate effectively in the language of policymakers:
- essential for eliminating stigma
- developing regulations
- obtaining licenses
- launching new facilities
- maintaining compliant operations
- anticipate and act on key inflection points in emerging cannabis markets
- grasp of policy-driven triggers (legislation, licensing, litigation, regulation, etc.)
- reinforce geographic focus
- extract alpha from complex or delayed markets
- deepest on the near-term's frothiest markets including
Ohio,
Massachusetts,
New Jersey,
Maryland,
Delaware, and Virginia; preemptive movement in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Texas.
- modeling state-based demand and supply imbalance
- preemptively mapping the price compression timetable
- facilitating M&A and reconciling highly-volatile valuations
- assessing, underwriting, and managing risks that break deals and waste scarce resources
levers and catalysts
> SAFE banking legislation doesn't matter now that we have uplisting, as Trulieve became the first plant-touching company to be listed on the NYSE as of 6/10/26. A second company followed on 6/30/26 and another handful are expected to follow. (What will that mean for rerating?)
FinCEN guidance as well as a word from Treasury with regard to 280E would be more welcome that another football from Lucy for Charlie to get tricked by.
> Rescheduling: Edge of the seat mode as the hearing to move all cannabis to Schedule 3 wrapped up mid-July and ALJ Julius is expected to make his recommendation any day.
Final Order is expected by mid-October.
Litigation will surely follow with an attempt at an injunction/stay to hold up implementation of the FR, though a judge may simply reject that on the grounds that the request is without merit.
Lack of standing has plagued the prohibitionists so far and the appeal of the medical rescheduling order is currently working its way through the DC Circuit.
> States: Pennsylvania GOP Senator Joe Pittman sadly seems intent on keeping the state as medical only for the near term. Rescheduling as a catalyst for PA AU was thrown a curve by the bifurcated Final Rule.
Delaware adult-use sales began over one year ago (8/1/25) but only through
14 incumbent medical dispensaries. New licensees are struggling to open, especially retail. A few manufacturing licensees are up and running and several new cultivators have flower on the market. MSO dominator MariMed continues owning wholesale as Ayr takes over the ashes of Columbia Care/Cannabist.
Their largest MSO moat is in Sussex County, but Governor Matt Meyer's veto of SB 75 was overridden in the wee hours of 7/1/26. 2.5 million will visit before beach season ends but there are still only 5 stores in the whole county.
- Monthly retail revenue for June 2026 was only $5.8MM but rebounded in July to a record $9.2MM with another $1MM wholesale.
- Several new retail store locations were revealed
- 2025 revenue $56MM
- 2026 revenue forecast between $82 - $90MM
- high end would require retails that didn't open until Q4
- SB 75 veto override will help future retail top line from floundering
- cultivation coming on line even slower than expected and wholesale figures are volatile
Virginia's new Governor finally came to her senses and let the budget take care of her snafu. AU rolls out in July 2027 with the application process kicking off in February 2027.
- Lottery
- License types:
- cultivation (five tiers)
- processing
- retail
- microbusiness
- transporter
- delivery
- testing
- Caps: 350 retail stores, 5 Tier V cultivation licenses
- 8% cannabis tax on top of 5.3% state tax and 1%-3.5% to municipalities
- License types: cultivation (five tiers), processing, retail, microbusiness, transporter, delivery, testing
- vertical integration permitted but capped at 5 total licenses
- License types: cultivation (five tiers), processing, retail, microbusiness, transporter, delivery, testing
The cannabis space is more daunting than ever in 2026.
And the stakes are now so much higher as industry mechanics develop in two dozen state-based markets. Cannabis isn't remotely recession-proof and the 7-10 year wait for federal legalization has completely turned off institutional investors. Schedule 3 bifurcation doesn't help, nor does lack of FinCEN or Treasury guidance. Regulatory reform is a bad bet, the East Coast has quickly become cannabis country and even modest growth requires outsized CAPEX.
Bearishly, the IRS has come right out and said that MSOs taking the 280E tax refunds ahead of time is uncool. The American Institute of CPAs has queried the Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service for guidance in advance of the impending transition. There may be a three-year lookback, but the IRS isn't going to give up all that coin without a fight.
Institutional capital is still beyond the horizon though some pensions and other allocators are looking to move money toward cannabis. While state-based banking reform has gained momentum, SAFER still isn't happening, STATES/PREPARE/CLIMB disappeared, and intoxicating hemp clings to hope that some hail mary will prevent 11/12/26 loophole closure. Even some of the strongest holdout operators are starting to fold in the trickiest markets like Michigan and Massachusetts.
As financing remains scarce, the pinch is felt industry wide with smaller single-state operators and cultivators nearly everywhere taking the biggest hit. Capital is far too constrained to sustain the measures of price compression and normalization being experienced across the heavily and even not so heavily taxed mature markets. Many operators are still trying to stand up licenses in NY, NJ, CT, OH, MD and DE and are starved for the necessary resources.
Call or text Jamie at 302-750-9678 today to discuss your current place in the cannabis industry and plans for the uncertainty and undeniable growth that lies ahead.
