To have a conversation about cannabis in your state or any other jurisdiction, call Jamie at 302-750-9678 or schedule a conversation.
we are an East Coast cannabis advisory specializing in macro & micro strategy, expansion,
industry research & intelligence, municipal outreach and market mechanics for regulators, stakeholders,
and operators in adult-use and medical marijuana markets.
Leveraging the ability to communicate effectively in the language of policymakers is essential for eliminating stigma, developing regulations, obtaining licenses, launching new facilities, and maintaining compliant operations.
In 2025's frothiest markets with a focus on the rollout of adult-use in
Connecticut,
New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania,
Delaware, and Ohio:
- forecasting state-based demand and supply imbalance
- evaluating the price compression timetable
- deciphering cannabis M&A's volatile valuations
- anticipating, assessing, and managing risk associated with deal breaking delays
levers and catalysts
January 2025: SAFE gets refiled in January as the new Congressional makeup and committees take shape.
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 9:00am - 5:00pm (streamed live at
dea.gov/live)
Rescheduling:
Moving cannabis to S3 is churning along steadily and the ALJ ("Administrative Law Judge") formal hearings are scheduled to kick off
1/21/25
with testimony Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, through
3/6/25
Litigation will surely follow with an attempt at an injunction to hold up implementation of the final rule, though a judge may simply reject that on the grounds that the request is without merit. The most bullish scenarios have a
final rule coming late April 2025 with the reasonably bearish pushing that into the Q3'25.
Days
Hours
Minutes
Seconds
- January-March : ALJ evidentiary hearing testimony from Designated Participants (schedule)
- ALJ will compile all the evidence and make a rescheduling recommendation to the DEA
- DEA will consider, then issue a final rule by publishing it in the Federal Register
- The Final Rule will become effective 30 days after publication (potentially 4/21/25)
Hat tip: Matt Zorn has done an amazing job compiling the
most up to date cannabis rescheduling information
The DEA has finally made their
docket portal available to the public.
February 2025
> Boies Schiller lawsuit: Oral arguments were heard in the US Court of Appeals for the First Circuit in Boston on 12/5/24 and the three-judge panel has yet to rule on the attempt to appeal on up to the Supreme Court late summer to overturn Raich. The Boies Schiller path to victory will be riddled with lots of developments to confuse and excite the space, but the momentum has so far been optimistic as the case accelerates through the process.
This landmark litigation, on behalf of Massachusetts retailer Canna Provisions, marijuana delivery business owner Gyasi Sellers, cultivator Wiseacre Farm and publicly traded multistate operator Verano Holdings, has even been blamed by the DEA as they attempt to drag rescheduling out as long as they can. Christine Bailey unpacks the case fantastically
here.
The judicial system may move "faster" than the administrative and legislative reform channels, but litigation sure is expensive.
> Administrative Shift: New political leadership will greatly impact cannabis reform at the federal level as the administration transitions in over the next three weeks.
All eyes are on potential Attorney General Pam Bondi as the Department of Justice and the DEA hold most of the cards as the rescheduling timeline painstakingly unfolds. S3 could get back on the fast track very quickly with our without any Bondi memo.
Upon rescheduling, the jobs report would begin to include the nearly half a million cannabis industry workers and that will be a very important metric for the new administration.
There is tremendous interest but little clarity as to how the new administration and Congress will handle bills like the CSRA (Cannabinoid Safety and Regulation Act) and the Farm Bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune hasn't warmed up to cannabis despite representing legal Montana, but it isn't expected that he will block the new administration's support of the industry.
June 2025: The Farm Bill potentially gets across the finish line, closing the intoxicating hemp loophole to coincide with most states passing legislation to do the same.
> States: Nebraska should have medical cannabis regulations soon thanks to the success of Initiative 438 at the ballot, though reefer madness is trying hard to overturn that.
Similarly, Ohio's grim reaper of cannabis, Speaker Matt Huffman, is vowing to roll back adult-use in a market that is already struggling to live up to bullish projections.
Kentucky's first 36 medical cannabis retail licenses were awarded via a lottery that took place on 11/25/24 with the second retail round adding 12 more on 12/16/24. The 16 cultivators (10 Tier I, 4 Tier II, 2 Tier III) were awarded by lottery on 10/28/24. First sales are expected by March.
Minnesota's lottery has been sadly delayed because of litigation and that rollout seems like it's going to go more like an embattled New York than a zippy Missouri.
The cannabis space will be more daunting than ever in 2025.
And the stakes are now so much higher as industry mechanics develop in two dozen state-based markets. Cannabis isn't remotely recession-proof and the 10-year (to never) wait for federal legalization has completely turned off institutional and retail investors. Regulatory reform is a bad bet, the East Coast has quickly become cannabis country and even calculated growth requires outsized CAPEX.
Rescheduling cannabis from S1 to S3 seems effectively a done deal though the mic drop catalyst that the publicly traded company stocks desperately need is looking to be March or April 2025 at best.
Consequently, 280E relief is now a 2025 event and the IRS has come right out and said that MSOs taking the refunds ahead of time is uncool. The American Institute of CPAs has queried the Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service for guidance in advance of the impending transition. There may be a three or four-year lookback, but the IRS isn't going to give up all that coin without a fight.
Institutional capital and pubco uplisting is still beyond the horizon though some pensions and other allocators are looking to move money toward cannabis. While state-based banking reform has gained momentum, SAFER isn't happening and the CSRA and intoxicating hemp will occupy any lame duck congress cannabis discussion. Even some of the stronger holdout operators are starting to fold in the trickiest markets like California, Oregon, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Massachusetts.
As financing remains scarce, the pinch is felt industry wide with smaller single-state operators and cultivators nearly everywhere taking the biggest hit. Capital is far too constrained to sustain the measures of price compression and normalization being experienced across the heavily and even not so heavily taxed mature markets. Operators trying to stand up licenses in NY, NJ, CT, MD and DE are starved for the necessary resources.
Call or text Jamie at 302-750-9678 today to discuss your current place in the cannabis industry and plans for the uncertainty and undeniable growth that lies ahead.
