advisory cannabis

An East Coast cannabis advisory specializing in macro & micro strategy, expansion,

industry research & intelligence, municipal outreach, and market mechanics for regulators, stakeholders,

and operators in adult-use and medical marijuana markets.

Leveraging the ability to communicate effectively in the language of policymakers is essential for eliminating stigma, developing regulations, obtaining licenses, launching new facilities, and maintaining compliant operations.

In the near-term's frothiest markets with a focus on the rollout of adult-use in Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Ohio: 

• forecasting state-based demand and supply imbalance
• evaluating the price compression timetable
• deciphering cannabis M&A's volatile valuations
• anticipating, assessing, and managing risk associated with deal breaking delays

levers and catalysts

SAFER gets refiled as the new Congressional committees flex their muscles.  The new admin wants banking done by mid-terms in 2026 and there's no time like the present. 

Rescheduling:  Moving cannabis to S3 is inadvertently on hold via interlocutory appeal until the new administrator of the DEA determines the course of action.  The new administration could also make a phone call to the DOJ and we'd have a Final Rule by Q3.  Follow @admindotlaw on Twitter for the inside line.

Litigation will surely follow with an attempt at an injunction to hold up implementation of the FR, though a judge may simply reject that on the grounds that the request is without merit.  The most bullish scenarios have a final rule coming early May 2025 with the reasonably bearish pushing that deep into Q3'25.

• If acting DEA administrator Derrick Maltz (or incoming administrator Terry Cole) determines that a new hearing is to be scheduled, that will fall to current ALJ John Mulrooney or his replacement.
• ALJ will compile all the evidence and make a rescheduling recommendation to the DE
• DEA will consider, then issue a final rule by publishing it in the Federal Register
• The Final Rule will become effective 30 days after publication.

Hat tip: Matt Zorn has done an amazing job compiling the most up to date cannabis rescheduling information 

The DEA docket portal is available to the public.

May 2025

>  Boies Schiller lawsuit:  Oral arguments were heard in the US Court of Appeals for the First Circuit in Boston on 12/5/24 and the three-judge panel has yet to rule on the attempt to appeal on up to the Supreme Court late summer to overturn Raich. The Boies Schiller path to victory will be riddled with lots of developments to confuse and excite the space, but the momentum has so far been optimistic as the case accelerates through the process.

This landmark litigation, on behalf of Massachusetts retailer Canna Provisions, marijuana delivery business owner Gyasi Sellers, cultivator Wiseacre Farm, and publicly traded multistate operator Verano Holdings, has even been blamed by the DEA for their own successful and illegal attempt to drag rescheduling out as long as possible.  Christine Bailey unpacks the case fantastically here.

The judicial system may move "faster" than the administrative and legislative reform channels, but litigation sure is expensive. 

>  Administrative Shift:  New political leadership should greatly impact cannabis reform at the federal level as the administration transitions into the second phase of policy priorities.  4/20 came and went without fanfare though real reform has been all talk from both sides of the aisle so far. 

All eyes are on potential Attorney General Pam Bondi as the Department of Justice and the DEA hold most of the cards as the rescheduling timeline painstakingly unfolds. S3 could get back on the fast track very quickly with our without any Bondi memo.

Upon rescheduling, the jobs report would begin to include the nearly half a million cannabis industry workers and that will be a very important metric for the new administration.

There is tremendous interest but little clarity as to how the new administration and Congress will handle bills like STATES and PREPARE.  Best bet has them dying in committee and federal movement stalling yet again.

June 2025: The Farm Bill potentially gets across the finish line, closing the intoxicating hemp loophole to coincide with most states passing legislation to do the same. 

>  States:  Pennsylvania is likely going to hammer through imperfect legislation, but they need the tax revenue so likeliest scenarios have adult-use sales starting 1/1/26.

Nebraska should have medical cannabis regulations soon thanks to the success of Initiatives 437 & 438 at the ballot and the subsequent creation of the Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission.

Kentucky's first 36 medical cannabis retail licenses were awarded via a lottery that took place on 11/25/24 with the second retail round adding 12 more on 12/16/24.  The 16 cultivators (10 Tier I, 4 Tier II, 2 Tier III) were awarded by lottery on 10/28/24.  First sales are expected before the end of summer.

Minnesota's lottery has been sadly delayed because of litigation and that rollout seems like it's going to go more like an embattled New York than a zippy Missouri.

The most up to date cannabis conversations can be found on LinkedIn and Twitter, where I am very active.